A professional portfolio by Fabrizio Lavado — economist, MA in Finance, with 25+ years specializing in DCF modeling, valuation, and investment analysis for capital-intensive industries, with deep focus on mining.
Mining projects live or die on their financial model. My career has been dedicated to building the ones that stand up to scrutiny from lenders, investment committees, and independent engineers.
Based in Lima, Peru — one of the world's most significant mining jurisdictions — I have 25+ years of experience in financial modeling, valuation, and investment analysis for capital-intensive industries, with a deep focus on mining.
My career spans senior corporate finance at Trafigura's global Mining Division (19 years, ending as Corporate Controller for mining companies worldwide), treasury and market risk at BBVA, senior analyst roles in mining project evaluation, and intermediate corporate finance experience in global manufacturing.
Throughout my career I have applied institutional methodologies — DCF, LOM modeling, Monte Carlo simulation, tornado sensitivities, and project finance structures — to mining investment decisions ranging from early-stage conceptual studies to bankable feasibility submissions.
Across two decades of mining finance, these are the areas where my work has concentrated — the methodologies, outputs, and analytical frameworks I bring to investment decisions.
Identifying the structural risks before they surface in a board meeting.
The language of investment committees and lenders.
Quantifying uncertainty so decisions can account for it.
Mining financial models typically include transparent assumption pages, full cash-flow waterfalls, multi-scenario comparisons, tornado sensitivities, and Monte Carlo distributions.
The mockup below is illustrative and anonymized — it does not represent any specific project, client, or commodity.
Across 25+ years of financial modeling in mining, these are the disciplines that separate a defensible model from one that collapses in due diligence.
Every assumption is traceable. Inputs, drivers, and outputs are clearly separated so reviewers — lenders, boards, auditors — can follow the logic without a guided tour.
Formulas are consistent, circular references are resolved, tax regimes and macro assumptions are validated against reliable sources. No shortcuts that surface later.
Scenario analysis, tornado sensitivities, and Monte Carlo simulations turn "what if" conversations into probabilistic ranges that decision-makers can actually use.
A model's job is to support a decision, not to impress with complexity. Every output points clearly to the implications for capital allocation, financing, or strategy.
Throughout my career I have worked on mining projects and operations across the Americas, Europe, Africa, and Central Asia. My Trafigura years involved direct coordination with country CFOs across multiple jurisdictions.
Commodity experience:
Financial modeling and valuation for capital-intensive projects remain the thread running through my career. The problems that draw me are those where geology, engineering, and capital markets meet on a single spreadsheet — and where the quality of the answer shapes the decision.
Whether you want to discuss a technical question, share thoughts on financial modeling, or explore future opportunities — feel free to reach out. I read and respond to every genuine message.